Forecast
The number is the start. The pathway is the point.
Live probabilities from public prediction markets on questions a desk actually trades — each paired with the causal chain between the world and the repricing.
Live · polymarket + kalshi · fetched JUL 4 · 12:50 UTC
FED & RATESWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?—GEOPOLITICSStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?0.3%MACROWill there be a recession in 2026?8%AI & COMPUTEWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?—
Programmatic forecast pages — exemplars; the full engine ships with the live pipeline.