{"generated_at":"2026-07-25T17:45:20.770Z","positioning":"Cascadian is the agent-native causal decision substrate — one MCP server in front of one Postgres, sitting between the numbers an agent watches and the decisions it makes. It hands an agent five things between a question and a defensible decision: tritemporal memory (every fact carries as_of and available_at, so the system physically cannot lie about what was knowable), a governed causal graph (agents propose, humans own truth), an identification gate (no causal estimate without a valid identification basis — otherwise exploratory, and labeled), simulate_intervention (do(X=x) on the approved graph, every knock-on effect with its assumptions labeled), and a decision ledger (expectations frozen before outcomes, so judgment compounds). Six invariants are enforced structurally — by schema constraints, append-only storage, and mandatory service paths — never by prompt.","world":{"fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:45:15.522Z","sources":["polymarket","kalshi"],"markets":[{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.0015,"change1d":null,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181"},{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.7525,"change1d":0.0205,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181"},{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.0045,"change1d":0.001,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181"},{"question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.0075,"change1d":0.001,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181"},{"question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.2405,"change1d":-0.009,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181"},{"question":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?","probability":0.01,"change1d":0,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfed/fed-funds-rate"},{"question":"Fed rate hike in 2026?","probability":0.725,"change1d":0.02,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026"},{"question":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?","probability":0.24,"change1d":-0.01,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfed/fed-funds-rate"},{"question":"Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?","probability":0.744,"change1d":-0.0005,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul"},{"question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?","probability":0.011,"change1d":0.0025,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762"},{"question":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?","probability":0.01,"change1d":0,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfed/fed-funds-rate"},{"question":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?","probability":0.99,"change1d":0,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfed/fed-funds-rate"},{"question":"Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?","probability":0.3,"change1d":0.06,"category":"MACRO","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpi/cpi"},{"question":"Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?","probability":0.2385,"change1d":0.001,"category":"MACRO","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-by"},{"question":"Will there be a recession in 2026?","probability":0.11,"change1d":-0.03,"category":"MACRO","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecssnber/recession"}]},"causal_layer":{"status":"illustrative — live pipeline ships with the product","example_pathway":{"label":"ILLUSTRATIVE","question":"If GPU export controls tighten, what happens to inference prices?","intervention":"do(gpu_export_controls = tightened)","nodes":["gpu_export_controls","accelerator_supply","datacenter_capex","frontier_training_runs","inference_price"],"edges":[{"from":"gpu_export_controls","to":"accelerator_supply","sign":"-","mechanism":"licensing narrows the export lane for top-bin accelerators","status":"approved"},{"from":"accelerator_supply","to":"datacenter_capex","sign":"+","mechanism":"constrained supply delays buildouts and reprices planned capacity","status":"approved"},{"from":"accelerator_supply","to":"frontier_training_runs","sign":"+","mechanism":"compute scarcity forces labs to ration training compute","status":"proposed"},{"from":"accelerator_supply","to":"inference_price","sign":"-","mechanism":"less serving capacity online keeps inference prices elevated","status":"approved"}],"note":"In the product, every edge carries a claimed mechanism, supporting evidence, and a human approval; no effect is quoted without passing the identification gate."}},"connect":{"mcp":"claude mcp add cascadian https://mcp.cascadian.ai/alpha","docs":"https://cascadian.ai/mcp-api","llms":"https://cascadian.ai/llms.txt"},"license":"CC-BY-4.0 — attribute Cascadian; market data via Polymarket & Kalshi public APIs"}